Iran’s supreme fuhrer ayatollah khameni on friday prayer. Image: khameni.Ir / cc by 4.0
In february iran elects a new parliament – the probability of new mass protests is roughly
Iran is in the endiest year after the islamic revolution in a difficult situation. Hard us sanctions, corruption and expensive foreign assignments have given rise to the economy of the economy. The middle class erodes, simple workers and employee fighting for financial survival.
Unemployment is high, inflation. Multiple in recent years, the rage of the population has been unloaded on the threads, most recently, hundreds of people were killed and thousands were arrested at nationwide mass protests in november 2019.
The year 2020 began with a new escalation when the us government murdered the iranian general ghassem soleimani in baghdad by drone attack and the iranian militar of little spater accidentally shot a ukrainian passenger machine with 176 people on board. An event that once more the iranians was pressed and made sure that regimenhangers were increasingly dying from the guided in tehran, whose jerking in the population is only on a highest shaky foundation anyway.
In the following days, students demonstrated in several attractions and demanded, as the workers in the previous year, the rapidity of both staatsprasident rohani and the revolutionary ajatollah ali khameni. At the same time, they rejected any intervention of axes and referred to the us interventions as "imperialist".
The election possibilities
The burger iran is the main casualties of the national and international conflicts. From the inside threatens a repressive regime, from subeat a world power with dubious intentions. At the beginning of the year, a wide front of cultural creators adapted to the demonstrators by conciling, the state fajr film festival to boycott, several employees of state media rallyed their jobs because they do not want to continue to participate in propaganda and lugs – many of them are now under prere.
On 21. February is the parliamentary elections. Prasident rohani demanded the powerful wake-up council in an attempt to face the opposition and let prere out of the boiler, to allow for the first time all candidates to election. This acts like the demand for more democracy, after more co-determination of the population. But only at first glance.
Traditionally, it is so that the elections are already trimmed in advance of elections. Although the parliament and are also determined municipal representatives in free elections. But if you stand your choice, the wake-up council decides in which every candidate has to register in advance. The council is directly subordinate to revolutions drivers khameni and stands with him about the parliament.
Candidates, which are too far away from the state line, are sipped and are not on the ballot. This is called: who can be chosen, has largely the consent of the regime. What the wake-up council of rohanis stimulus stopped, he made clear at the beginning of february by means of mass potential candidates to eliminate the option. No matter how the choice runs, in the end, a parliament approved by the council and the revolutionary manager.
And even if this is different: every decision of parliament can be collected by khameni and the wachterrat. Incibly remains a gagged and tied up billboard. A true democracy only administered it when khameni and the revolutionary waxiers abdaimed or on formal items without vetobefge to the parliament to be backed up – exactly that demands the opposition.
At the time of the reform commentary mohammad khatami, it was mainly dominated to numerous tangible openening attempts. But real sustainable reforms do not get khatami and his cabinet – because the wachtierrat intervened again and again.
Khatami’s successor mahmoud ahmadinejad managed with the help of billions subconvying and tax presents, especially the lower layers to calm down and at the same time, but at the same time he isolated the land through his harsh rhetoric and his erratic occurrence on the diplomatic parquet, during which he is at the same time his economic policy and caterpillar economy began to drove the land into a disaster.
Many economic problems of today are still a heritage of ahmadinejad years. Through his single-time, the former tehran burgermeister quickly felt with the conservative hardliners. Hassan rohani tried to make everything differently. As a representative of the system on the one hand and prudent diplomat, on the other hand, he wanted to take care of damage to damage and bring the economy to the market with a neoliberal reform policy. Ultimately, he did not succeed.
Already several times the system islamic republic faded in the decades after its basic. But so fragile as currently the situation was never. The nuclear conflict that finally settled in 2015 breaks up again, the continuous conflict with the us, which had relaxed under obama, is re-elected by trump.
Despite partly violent resistance both from one’s own population and in the destination masters, iran is firm to expand its influence in iraq, syria and numerous other countries; even with profound economic reforms, it was hardly possible for the present time to significantly reduce the devastating effects of us sanctions; and it can not be amed that the inner-internal protests will pause for a long time.
The boys make the population majority
At the latest to the parliamentary elections, once more it becomes clear that the government is not ready to make constantings, the anger was allowed to cook again. It’s just the young iranians who openly debate from boycotting the elections because they are a farce in their current form, a malfunctioning play.
The boys make the population majority. Two-thirds are young than truss years. They encourage unemployment and inflation. They are about calling that workers and students should lose together. So far, it was always so that the social layers were separated on the straws and were not really solidarity with each other. Sometimes demonstrated and striked the workers, then again students and urban middle classes.
Either way or so – iran is in a restless, in a transition time. And the output is not foreseeable.