Eu elections: mainly national secondary elections?

EU elections: mainly national side elections?

Saal and conference town in which the romische support were signed in 1957. Image: hadi / cc by-sa 3.0

According to ard-germanytrend, there is a strong approval of the eu and choice, including the afd appeal surprise. Eu commission prospective juncker lacks the "collective libido"

The interest in the eu election is relatively high, reports the ard germany trend. This is underlaid that 53 percent of respondents are "very strong" or "strong" for the eu parliamentary elections interest. In the overall picture, however, a split attitude is noticeable.

Most clearly becomes the division with the middle categories. So 36 percent answered the question "how strong are you interested in the european elections?" with the predetermined "strong", that makes an emphatic impression. A rough content, namely 37 percent, gave "fewer" to answer. With the more pronounced answers "very strong" or "not at all" the difference was 7 percentage points. 17 percent are therefore very interested in 10 not at all.

If the 53 percent is actually elections in good three weeks, then the turnout in germany was clearly overbood in germany from 48.1 percent in the last election in 2014 (in the two elections previously it was only 43 percent). However, the distance to the turnout with the federal elections was still very gross (in 2017 she was 76.2 percent).

At the first european elections in 1976, the voting participation in the eu-wide was almost 62 percent and in germany at just under 66 percent, these values were never reached again. But then one was obviously not exactly excited. Because in 1980, the politologists karlheinz reif and hermann schmitt checked her "sideway thesis", what the elections to the european parliament basically "national secondary elections" are.

Accordingly, fewer voters are part of the eu elections, because it is also less on the game than in the national elections and the voting tax rather than signal is directed to the own country – the keyword is: protest election – rather than the concrete majority differences in the european parliament where anyway much is complicated and the executive powers are difficult to transpose to national parliaments.

A particularly important slave

This time speaks much that it is a particularly important slot. Although decisive top items are largely awarded for internal agreements for the eu, with the election results already playing a role, but the eu has become more important than in the last eu election. It is static in debates prasent. Not to mention is that politicians and media are strongly oriented in moods that are determined by surveys. Election results are the more important indicator.

That it is a special number of direct dialing, it is also because a lot is addressed to the question, as the populists and "eu skeptic" cut off and what answers the election result provides how the attitude towards the eu looks like.

Majority provides advantages of the eu

If it goes according to the ard germany trend, there is a gross majority, 73 percent, which is the collection that membership in the eu ensures, "that it goes economically well". 71 percent believe that the eu also ensures, "that we live", and 80 percent spoke out that the radical policy appears stronger in appearance.

Also, the question of whether the cooperation between the european countries should be deepened, in principle, without approaching the nature of the depression, the mostly, although scarce (52 percent) is answered with a consent. However, this has lost 5 percentage points since february. 27 percent spoke in the survey for that "the states again strong alone". Goods in about the proportion of voting, with which the populists and eurosceptian can expect?

Majority of the afd approach for statement: "the eu is intended to be europe"

As expected, the rough majority is found for a personal-level action at national level in the afd attachments, there are 68 percent for that. Somewhat amazing, because falling from the full framework of perception, the afd result is the chart to question "the eu is intended to be europe" will be shown.

Accordingly, 74 percent of the afd appendant agree to this sentence. Peakers are here the green approach with 92 percent, followed by the union’s attachments with 89 percent. What with "a" is meant to what extent that of "deepen" described, however, remains completely open. However, the answers can be read as a principal approval of the eu, opposition prints differently.

In the sunday question on the european elections, the afd was coming to ten points. There were two percentage points more in the general election. Accordingly, the afd itself can not hope for a rough sign of the european elections, as orban or salvini hoped and macron in france spilled in the face of prusser marine le pen.

Sunday questions

There are differences in the respective sunday questions for the general election and the european elections: but the results are so close to each other that hardly conclusions are to be derived from this, except that they are easy to reconcile with the thesis of national side election.

At the sunday question on the european elections, the union reaches 29 percent. At the sunday question for the general election she lies at 28 points. Similar to the spd (19% and 18 percent), the green (19 percent in the european-election surnetags question and 20 percent at the sunday question on the general election), the left (7 percent and 9 percent) and the fdp (7 percent and 9 percent).

Juncker and love

In germany, therefore, it was not possible to burrow what the still-reimbursing commissionspasident juncker as a deterioration result of a side election, which is determined by national domestic grunden, painted to the wall: "but what was happening if national parties were at the right and left edge overall in the eu the upper hand? Then not only the eu in the end, but also the liberal democracies, the free societies. That must be all that, for example, elements the afd."

Shortly before the end of his term of office, the politician discovered in the interview with the handelsblatt ubwigen’s love as a coarse cohesion, which is missing the eu:

But the core problem of the europe is another: we do not love each other. The collective libido has been lost to us.