Red-black at the end?

According to the results of the nrw state election, the conflict between fdp and union is stretched

The grunenzeiche taz sees the end of black and yellow after the nrw choice. But so far, only one thing is certain. In dusseldorf, this color constellation was released as expected. Not even 42% of the wahler voted for these two parties. The union has lost 10% and is thus shrunk to her normal mab in nrw. Finally, after a short cdu-intermezzo in the post-war period, almost a social democratic trust country. Therefore, in the union, the election victory of ruttgers 4 years ago with so much attention was considered. For the schroder-spd, the then election defeat in nrw was the reason for the pre-drawn new elections 2005 and the end of red-grun.

Second election lover spd

But the spd actually has little reason for the casualty, even if it is now stylized in the media to the winner because it is almost okay with the union. The spd itself could not benefit from the defeat of the cdu itself in its root country and slipped from 37.1% to 34.5%. This repeats in nrw, which was already in many state elections of recent years. Union and spd run the wahler away and none of the two parties benefits from the weak of the others.

Even for the spd, the nrw result is a disaster. She has wanted to rebuked with the nomination of hannelore as the top candidate from the course of the schroder-years, which was carried by the nrw-spd under clement and muntefering for a long time to detail. With the nomination of the dgb chair of nrw guntram schneider to the designated labor and social minister, the clientele should be addressed especially the clientele, which the spd has championed in nrw decades of unsealed and only through the policy of the schroder government, here is primarily hartz iv to call, on distance to the spd went.

The hope of the spd strategists to address these circles with an explicit pro-red-green election campaign, has not been risen. Therefore, she did not succeed in keeping the left party from the nrw landtag, which was also a ballot of the spd. So red grun does not have its own majority in the state parliament. In recent weeks, the nrw landesverband of the left from the spd and the greats was particularly radical and intelligent and thus as an obstacle for a change of government. It was already clearly out of many of these opinions that it was against a left party after the role model berlin, where they have had no-sized for years and also accepted some social cruelty, as a government partner.

Although hannelore kraft temporarily excludes a government with the left, this option is not yet completely off the table. At the left party has so far a coalition with the spd and the grunes failed in any western bundestag. That was also valid for nrw. But that was the worst-case scenario for a party, at the base former and still devastated social democrats specify the sound, which do not want to get back to the majority interest of the spd and the strengthened green. But more but the left party did not become a daft with its 5.6%.

Since the party has made the modest election destination, the 5% hurt to overcome, she can now see himself as an electoral winner. But in the face of forecasts up to 8% a year ago, the election result is not a gross success. However, the party has stabilized nationwide. A failure at the 5% hurde had sparked doubts. Inner parties it would have become a steep template for the realo group, which suspects a hoard of the left in the nrw landesverband. Now, when the party becomes a bundnis with spd and grunes, the also inner parties had a signal function. Berlin was not the exception, but the rule.

Such a proof, which many party realism wishes, could best compete a state association as left. That was already in the history of the grunes, which were only slowed down the course of the government, as in 1988 even the radically shifted west berliner alternative list with the spd coalized. Nevertheless, the goblet was allowed to prepare at the nrw-left this time, because in the nrw-spd the aversions against the left is still too strong. If wolfgang clement also broke with his old party, so there is still a lot of its spiritual heirs in the local heirs.

Winner of the postfordist change

The fact that a lot has changed in nrw in recent years, it is best on the election result of the grunes, which have arrived at 12.5% also in nrw in the double-digit area. If the inevitable claudio roth fantasizes right from the bang in the evening, this can be debited under the stroking of the grunen soul. But this result is also a seismograph for the economic changes in the former heart of the german heavy industry.

The postfordist change with its often precarene workplaces has also registered nrw. The green are a winner, the spd a loser and the left party a product of this change. That was quickly becoming clear with possible coalition. The times, where the greats in the ara rau and clement had to treat the coalition table, like unloved shrub children, are over. Underheld, a self-confident bourgeois party was created here, which is open for both sides. In some municipalities, cooperation with the union works better than with the spd.

But for that of ruttgers and merkel secretly favored black-grune bundis, there is no majority in nrw because the cdu has lost too much. Therefore, the greats already at election evening have their campaign to deselect black-yellow also invited in the federal government. This is not a spatere black-green liaison not excluded.

No uprising in the cdu

The reactions of the parties to the nrw election result were calculable. So repeated fdp boss westerwelle his mantra: "we have the warning shot", without calling the following consequences. Even the conservative faz did not feel comfort in the fact that the fdp in nrw protrudes the last state elections even slightly improved. Rather, she sees the problem that westerwelle can no longer play the public against the published opinion and no longer silence the party-internal critics. "Now he is unpopular and has also lost the choice, it’s been in a faz commentary.

Also in the union, the critics will work out not only to jurgen ruttgers, who took responsibility for the poor election result. It is likely that in the nrw-union the stools will soon start and ruttgers is the first random candidate. But this time, a cause for the electoral debacle in the federal government is also seen under conservatives. The very time for merkel is also over at the faz, which the chancellor poses arbitrariness and decision-making: "black-yellow has the chance to present itself as a force of crisis-based animals. You wanted to go safe, do not make decisions that mahler could scare in north rhine-westphalia. The merkel government had to elect a different sound situation."

If the bundestag meps assert monika guts, there will certainly be no uprising in the cdu, shows the seriousness of the situation. An uprising against merkel will not exist in the union. Only the largely isolated willy wimmer demanded her jerk.

But an uprising against westerwelle is not unlikely. For weeks, union politicians have begun to seek the conflict with the fdp in the question of tax cuts. The union must honestly say the elections that the fdp tarpaulin is not to be realized from economic reasons, the reasoning that the results of the youngest tax assessment can also occupy. After the nrw election, the question becomes more urgent. Because now black-yellow has no majority in the bundesrat, in addition to the tax reform with the runtime extension of nuclear power plants and the head fee, two more favorite projects of the fdp in the drawer disappeared.

From the reaction of the fdp was allowed to stop if black-yellow is also in the waistband in the end. If she continues its course, more politicians of the opinion of the chairman of the workers’ group of peter white will also follow in the union, which explained in the stuttgart news: "either there is this insight in the fdp, or it comes to the point that you have to say: in this coalition do not rule. If nothing happens, you have to question the coalition."